There was very provocative and true article that circulated in the mass media about potash this month. Given the geo-political tensions between the U.S. and Germany over NATO and the Iran War, it was a timely discussion to bring potash into the balance of power equation. The article, originally published in Bloomberg and subsequently in various other media sources, is entitled “Germany Sees US as Vulnerable to Squeeze on Potash Supplies”.
Potash was referred to as a way for the German government to win leverage over President Trump by attacking one of the U.S.’s supply chain vulnerabilities. K+S Group is the German potash producer that has potash mines in both Germany and Canada. The Bethune mine in Saskatchewan was the world’s newest greenfield potash mine before BHP’s Jasen mine arrived to the sector. In other words, K+S’s Bethune mine is the newest potash mine that is currently in production for the
global market.
K+S released its 1Q26 earnings in April: EBITDA was reported at EUR 280 million, which was above the market consensus of EUR 225 million and higher than 1Q25’s EUR 201 million. K+S is also a salt producer, supplying both the de-icing and food-grade salt markets. The MOP price for K+S was an average of €336 per tonne in 1Q26, and the company produced 1.97 million tons. K+S raised its full-year 2026 EBITDA forecast to €630 million–€730 million, up from approximately €600 million–€700 million in the previous forecast.
The company attributed the rise in the EBITDA forecast to Brazilian potash demand. The company noted in the earnings statement: “If the average annual price of potassium chloride in Brazil remains at the level seen at the end of 2025, EBITDA could reach the lower end of the range, assuming sales volumes of 7.4 million tonnes in the Agriculture customer segment.” Brazilian potash price levels are already rising, at around USD $400 per ton of MOP. This is already a premium of more than USD $50 per ton at the end of 2025.
It is not difficult to see K+S as a potential predator lurking around other potash mining projects globally, notably Brazil Potash (NYSE: GRO).
Read more about the growth minerals space in the May edition of the Growth Minerals Review
Joshua Mayfield publishes a Growth Minerals Sector Review for Hallgarten. The growth minerals space is full of opportunities to explore, develop and invest in the expansion of new resource projects that will solve food and energy insecurity around the globe.
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