By Joshua Mayfield, Growth Minerals Analyst for Hallgarten+Co
After President Trump’s Truth Social post on 21 September the conversations around a U.S. Belarus potash deal were spread obnoxiously on social media networks, and even international media such as CNN covered the controversial trade topic. At one point in time, Belarus was the highest trending topic on X—and all the posts were related to potash, not human rights.
It seems that a global public awareness campaign about potash from Russia and Belarus has finally paid off. Trump’s Truth Social post makes the argument that the potash price matters more for U.S. farmers, but what matters the most for U.S. potash prices is stability without exposure to supply chain shocks. Critics have pointed to the rise in U.S. MOP imports from Russia in recent years. From 2023-2025, there was a marginal increase in MOP imports from Russia. This had more to do with railroad issues, especially in 2024 when there were widespread strikes across Canada’s labor force. This wasn’t a decision made because of the price of MOP. In fact, Canadian imports still rose in 2024 and 2025, which is likely because of the MOP price stability as opposed to any supply chain issue.
In our discussion with The Globe & Mail about this breaking news story, we shared our concerns about the realistic outcomes for President Trump using potash imports as leverage against Canada in ongoing trade discussions. It is the market that will ultimately decide on where the potash ends up and at what cost it will get to farmers worldwide. The U.S. still spent over US$5 billion to buy Canadian potash during the unprecedented price surge from 2021-2022. The price didn’t fall until there was demand destruction from U.S. farmers, not because Russia and Belarus came back into the market during that time.
After cooler heads prevailed in the mass media space, Pan Schwann of the Saskatchewan Mining Association went on Canada’s CTV News to share an important insight: “We don’t use a lot of potash in Canada. Our soils are non-depleted in potassium, but almost 50% of our product does go into the U.S. market right now.” This is an advantage that goes under the radar when talking about the geopolitics of fertilizers. The world’s largest fertilizer producers do not consume a significant amount of their own production, and that’s why China must stockpile potash, because domestic potash production in China cannot meet the demand for soil depletion on farms.
Read more about the global potash market and agriculture news in this edition of the
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